Brent 2026 · +7% YoY in upstream spending 2026—27
The Middle East conflict creates the preconditions for a new investment cycle in global upstream.
Global trends and a detailed analysis of Russia’s oilfield services market: market size and structure, contractor capacity, segment growth and profitability, and forecasts through 2028.
Overview · September 2026PDF ↓ CAGR is the compound annual growth rate over three years: global market from US$770bn to US$858bn; Russian market from RUB3,021bn to RUB3,752bn. The estimates use different market scopes. Source: KC report, pp. 5, 9, 15.
The Middle East conflict creates the preconditions for a new investment cycle in global upstream.
Holding production on plateau requires ever more work: footage drilled up 11%, headcount up 16%, while production fell 2% over 2021—2025. For the operator the tonne did not get more expensive — the difference was absorbed by contractor margins.
Capacity has stopped growing: the workover crew fleet is unchanged over four years, and frac fleets have reached the limit of demand.
Over ten years the market has shifted from well construction to production maintenance: the share of drilling services fell from 13% to 10%, while stimulation and production rose from 10% to 12%. Russia is following the same trajectory.
Growth of 13% per year over the past five years gives way to 8% in the forecast. Two thirds of the increase comes from inflation rather than work volumes.
For the first time the industry is investing more in production than it earns from it.
Each layer is one trillion roubles. Left of the divide is the KC estimate, right of it is the Kasatkin Consulting forecast.
| Year | Market, RUB bn | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1,838 | — |
| 2022 | 2,323 | +26.4% |
| 2023 | 2,717 | +17.0% |
| 2024 | 3,120 | +14.9% |
| 2025 | 3,021 | −3.2% |
| 2026 | 3,247 | +7.5% |
| 2027 | 3,490 | +7.5% |
| 2028 | 3,752 | +7.5% |
| Year | Market, RUB bn | Change | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1,838 | — | KC estimate |
| 2022 | 2,323 | +26.4% | KC estimate |
| 2023 | 2,717 | +17.0% | KC estimate |
| 2024 | 3,120 | +14.9% | KC estimate |
| 2025 | 3,021 | −3.2% | KC estimate |
| 2026 | 3,247 | +7.5% | forecast |
| 2027 | 3,490 | +7.5% | forecast |
| 2028 | 3,752 | +7.5% | forecast |
Between 2021 and 2025, Russian drilling footage rose 11% and oilfield services employment grew 16%, while oil production fell 2%. Maintaining output requires more activity and resources.
The report helps oil and gas operators, service companies, equipment manufacturers and investors assess demand, contractor capacity and financial resilience.
“Russian oilfield services represent RUB 3 trillion per year and 370 thousand jobs.”
Dmitry Kasatkin · Kasatkin Consulting
From the report’s foreword
The market is broken down into 15 segments in money terms, while capacity and operations are given in physical units.
| Segment | RUB bn | share |
|---|---|---|
| Equipment | 727.7 | 24.1% |
| Drilling | 674.9 | 22.3% |
| Other | 282.8 | 9.4% |
| Well intervention & workover | 238.2 | 7.9% |
| Hydraulic fracturing | 223.3 | 7.4% |
| Drilling support | 151.0 | 5.0% |
| Drilling fluids | 141.2 | 4.7% |
| Artificial lift | 101.0 | 3.3% |
| Sidetracking | 97.4 | 3.2% |
| Cementing | 77.3 | 2.6% |
| Exploration drilling | 76.4 | 2.5% |
| Well logging | 67.4 | 2.2% |
| Seismic | 66.9 | 2.2% |
| Coiled tubing | 56.3 | 1.9% |
| Bit services | 39.2 | 1.3% |
| Oilfield services market, total | 3,021.0 | 100% |
Revenue of oilfield service companies was collected from the financial statements of 493 legal entities and allocated to segments through the notes to those statements.
The forecast links operators’ cash flow, capital expenditure, drilling footage, operations and revenue. Macro assumptions come from the Bank of Russia survey.
Revenue estimates are checked against drilling footage, frac stages, workovers and equipment fleets. Calculations, primary data and expert estimates are distinguished.
According to Kasatkin Consulting, the Russian oilfield services market reached RUB 3,021 bn in 2025, excluding VAT. The scope includes equipment and excludes infrastructure construction. Average annual growth over 2021—2025 was 13%; the forecast to 2028 is 8% per year, reaching RUB 3,752 bn.
The largest segments in 2025 are equipment at RUB 727.7 bn, drilling at RUB 674.9 bn, well intervention and workover at RUB 238.2 bn, hydraulic fracturing at RUB 223.3 bn and drilling support at RUB 151.0 bn. The drilling cluster as a whole — drilling, exploration drilling, sidetracking, drilling support, fluids, cementing, well logging and bit services — totals RUB 1,318 bn, or about 44% of the market. Well logging is allocated between drilling and exploration; only its drilling-related share is included in this cluster.
About 370 thousand in 2025, against 318 thousand in 2021. No official employment statistics exist for the industry: the estimate is reconstructed from company payroll data and disclosed average headcount.
The drilling rig fleet is 1,352 units with wear and tear of 55%; the technical footage ceiling without fleet renewal is around 32 mn m per year against 29.1 mn m actually drilled. The frac fleet is 200 units, 16 of them mothballed, against 184 required by work volumes. There are 2,877 workover crews, a number unchanged for four years.
Official statistics publish neither the size of the oilfield services market, nor headcount in it, nor the equipment fleet. The report reconstructs these figures from primary sources — company financial statements, Rosnedra forms 2-GR and 7-GR, EMISS and CDU TEK data, interviews with operators and contractors, international databases — and labels every figure as fact, calculation or expert estimate.
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